One question I get asked alot both inside and outside our industry is – Are we in a bubble? Or the less subtle – We are in a bubble aren’t we? I lived through a few bubbles last decade. The DotCom bubble, where I was the naysayer – “This trajectory isn’t sustainable”. To the Asian Crisis, when I was selling industrial park space in China, and clearly saw the over building, over spending, and money transferring happening across many Asian countries, and then lost my job because of it. And I now find myself quite happily in the middle of Mobile Madness where I see similarities and differences to the past. On one hand it feels like we are moving very fast now with insatiable growth, demand for apps, extreme competition and everyone wanting to get into the game. On the other hand after being in the industry since ’95 – I’m so glad the rest of the world is finally catching up!
I chuckled recently watching a US morning show where the two women were going gaga over these ‘new’ QR codes, and I recalled how exciting they were for me 5 or so years back helping me get a free pass to a hot CTIA party.
I worked on ‘convergence projects back in ’95, and we are now seeing ‘transmedia’ truly happening.
In another aspect, the hunt for good web developers during the Dotcom days, had young high school kids demanding 100k salaries for html skills; and we are seeing similarities now with the so called ‘dirth’ of mobile developers , where iphone developers with 2 years or less experience are demanding and getting a higher price than seasoned engineers.
I think we will witness this instability for while as we play with business models, watch technologies and ideas form new mashups, and new skills become old hat.
As ever the ones who stay agile, flexible and creative will do well, from the small development company to the big operators and OEMs. Besides – who needs sleep!
News from WIP May 2011: Innovation trumps sleep. Always.